Autonomous supply chains: When AI takes over the last mile
The logistics industry is on the threshold of a new era: autonomous trucks and logistics drones are already a reality in pilot projects and are paving the way for a fully automated supply chain. While robotaxis are still waiting for their widespread adoption, initial road tests and drone flights prove that AI-driven solutions promise significant efficiency‑, safety‑ and sustainability gains along the entire transport chain. This article sheds light on ongoing projects, market forecasts and the opportunities and challenges that companies and politicians will face.
Companies that do not invest in autonomous trucks and logistics drones by 2026 at the latest will lose out in the “war for efficiency” of the next decade. Autonomous logistics is no longer a nice ‑to‑have, but a strategic imperative.
Status quo: pilot projects and big players
Tesla Semi
Elon Musk announced at AI Day 2024 that the series production of the “Tesla Semi” would autonomously close the gap between North‑ and South America. So far, four prototypes have rolled on Californian highways, two of them under real logistics conditions of a large US‑freight forwarder.
VW & Scania
In mid-2025, Volkswagen and Scania tested three Level‑4‑trucks in Sweden that were on the road alone at night and in fog in long-distance transport. “We are seeing up to 20% fewer delays and 15% less energy consumption,” says Dr. Herbert Diess, Chairman of the Board of Management VW/Commercial Vehicles.
Audi, BMW and Polestar
Premium‑OEMs are also investing: Audi is linking its pilot program in Ingolstadt with 5G‑corridors, BMW is testing Level‑3‑solutions in the Munich area, Polestar is planning a fleet of drones‑for transporting spare parts between its plants.
Volvo and BYD
Volvo Trucks has partnered with Nvidia to develop AI‑controllers for autonomous trucks. BYD, in turn, supplies e-truck‑‑chassis for pilot projects in China, where over 100 drone flights for‑e-commerce‑deliveries take off every day.
Alphabet / Waymo and Google
Waymo Freight has been demonstrating autonomous‑hub-to-hub‑driving in Arizona since 2024. Google is investing USD 1 billion in software‑stacks based on Bosch‑sensor technology and ZF‑control.
Deutsche Bahn, Bosch & ZF
In the EU‑project MODI, automated DB trucks are rolling‑on motorways around Hamburg. Bosch and ZF will supply sensor‑clusters and interchangeable modules. However, Bosch‑CEO Stefan Hartung warns: “Without a uniform legal situation, a lot of things will remain cold coffee.”
Pilot projects at a glance
Figure 1: Number of pilot projects by leading players in the field of autonomous logistics.
This overview shows how widely‑testing is now being carried out in industry and start-ups – an unmistakable signal that the technology could be standard tomorrow.
Autonomous trucks: status quo and pilot projects
DSV & dm-drogerie markt / IVECO / Plus
In May 2025, DSV, together with dm‑drogerie markt, IVECO and Software‑Partner Plus, successfully completed a road test of a semi-autonomous‑driver assistance solution in Krefeld. This test is the first step towards fully autonomous technology in German freight transport DSV.
MODI project Hamburg
The EU-funded MODI‑project demonstrated for the first time the integration of automated trucks into flowing motorway traffic and their ability to detect vulnerable road users in Hamburg’s urban traffic.
ATLAS‑L4 & TÜV Süd
The ATLAS‑L4 research project drew a successful balance in July 2025: Level‑4‑trucks operated in‑hub-to-hub‑‑traffic and provided valuable insights for future series applications. Around 150 engineers laid the foundation for Logistics 4.0
Logistics drones: supply chains in the air
Morpheus‑load drones NRW
Since May 2025, the start-up Morpheus has been supplying‑hospitals in North Rhine-Westphalia‑with blood reserves and laboratory samples by drone – over 100 flights a day are planned Logistics Today.
Continental Drones & Wingcopter
Continental Drones, in partnership with Wingcopter, has received millions of dollars in investments to build medical supply chains in remote regions. Pilot projects in Africa and Europe are already underway Logistics Today.
Urban delivery robots and scheduled flights
In urban centres, logistics service providers are testing drones‑Scheduled flights: Initial approvals from the German Federal Aviation Authority enable the regular transport of light shipments weighing up to 6.5 kg at up to 65 km/h
Market potential & speed of growth
Autonomous Last Mile Delivery Europe
The European autonomous delivery market generated revenue of USD 580.7 million in 2024 and is growing at a CAGR of 25.2% through 2030, according to Grand View Research.
Global Autonomous Vehicles in Logistics
Globally, the market volume of autonomous vehicles in logistics was around USD 26.5 billion in 2024 with a projected CAGR of 55.6% through 2032, according to Future Data Stats.
Autonomous Truck Market
The global market size of autonomous trucks was USD 356.9 billion in 2024 and is expected to grow at a rate of 16.2% p.a. from 2025 to 2034 Global Market Insights Inc..
Figure 2 shows the dramatic increase in the market volume of autonomous trucks and logistics drones from 2024 to 2030. While autonomous trucks are growing from USD 356.9 billion (2024) to around USD 800 billion (2030), the drone sector is exploding‑from USD 580.7 billion to over USD 2,200 billion. The CAGR‑rates of 16.2% (trucks) and 25.2% (drones) show one thing clearly: those who do not follow suit will quickly be overtaken by the innovation tug.
Opportunities for supply chain optimization
- Cost efficiency and scalabilityReduced personnel costs combined with higher capacity utilization promise significant savings along the supply chain.
- SustainabilityElectrically powered autonomous vehicles and drones minimize emissions and relieve urban areas of traffic jams and noise.
- Safety and reliabilityAI‑clusters permanently monitor sensor‑ and telemetry data, drastically reducing accidents and delays.
Why polarization is necessary here
Many decision-makers believe that autonomous logistics is still at least ten years away. This is naïve wishful thinking. Those who do not test today will pay the bill tomorrow in the form of higher costs, staff shortages and lost market share.
Quote from Jensen Huang, Nvidia: “Without‑AI-supported vehicles, there is no Logistics 4.0.
At the same time, traditionalists argue that unmanned systems are neither flexible nor robust enough. But in pilot projects, companies such as Morpheus (100 drone flights a day for hospitals in North Rhine-Westphalia) and Plus (‑semi-autonomous trucks for dm‑drogerie markt) are reporting significant efficiency gains.
Technical and regulatory construction sites
- Regulatory framework: Uniform standards for Level‑4 and Level‑5‑vehicles as well as air traffic permits are essential to enable nationwide applications.
- Legal patchwork: Different permits in EU‑countries block cross-border fleets.
- Cybersecurity: Connected vehicles are gateways for attacks. A robot‑truck‑hack quickly costs 10 million euros in lost sales. Networked systems in the logistics chain require robust protection mechanisms against sabotage and data theft
- Network infrastructure: 5G‑corridors and drone hubs are lacking across the board. Without stable networking, there is no real-time‑optimization.
- Interoperability: OEMs, Tier‑1‑suppliers and software houses must define standards. Bosch, ZF and Google are currently working on proprietary protocols.
- Infrastructure and digitalization: Charging‑ and landing infrastructure for drones as well as 5G‑networks along highways must be expanded quickly.
- Acceptance and the labour market: Training‑ and further training of specialists in AI‑monitoring centres as well as acceptance by politicians and the population must be driven forward in parallel.
Best Practices & konkrete Cases
| Enterprise | Project | Learnings |
|---|---|---|
| Deutsche Bahn | MODI (Hamburg) | Sensor fusion at 100% darkness |
| Morpheus | NRW‑Medical Drones | 1,000 km² of air traffic, zero accidents |
| Waymo Freight | Hub‑to‑Hub Arizona | 40% better energy consumption vs. diesel |
| Tesla Semi | California long-distance transport | 10% faster tours when driving at night |
| VW / Scania | Level‑4 in Sweden | 20% reduction in delays |
Challenges and need for action
- Uniform standards for Level‑4 and Level‑5‑vehicles as well as air traffic permits are essential to enable nationwide applications.
- Cybersecurity: Networked systems in the logistics chain require robust protection mechanisms against sabotage and data theft Palo Alto Networks.
- Infrastructure and digitalization: Charging‑ and landing infrastructure for drones as well as 5G‑networks along highways must be expanded quickly.
- Acceptance and the labour market: Training‑ and further training of specialists in AI‑monitoring centres as well as acceptance by politicians and the population must be driven forward in parallel.
Recommendations for decision-makers
- Scale pilot technology immediately: Start at least one Level‑4‑truck‑pilot project in 2025.
- Cross-industry‑‑cooperations: Form alliances with Tier‑1‑suppliers and tech‑giants (e.g. Nvidia, Alphabet).
- Regulatory dialogue: Work closely with authorities and associations on uniform EU‑standards.
- Skill‑Upskilling: Invest in AI‑ and networking skills of your workforce.
Outlook: Integration into networked supply chains
In the future, autonomous systems will be seamlessly integrated into transportation‑management‑systems (TMS) and‑ensure traceability and transparency via blockchain protocols. Edge‑AI‑solutions enable real-time‑optimization of routes, while micro‑fulfillment‑centers and drone hubs automate last miles. Companies that invest in pilot projects and partner with technology providers today secure long-term competitive advantages in an increasingly digitized and resilient supply chain.
Result
Autonomous logistics is no longer science‑fiction, but is in tangible pilot projects on European roads and in the air. With clear regulatory guardrails, investments in infrastructure and targeted development of skilled workers, today’s test phase will expand massively from 2026 onwards. It is crucial that politics, business and research now work together to create the conditions for AI-supported‑supply chains to become the new standard.
Author: Wolfgang A. Haggenmüller
Click here for the original article: Mobility & More, the blog focusing on mobility, technology and sustainability.
